How is Brexit going to affect your retirement?

 An Australian Perspective

Holiday Goal

I am more than 15 years from retirement

How does it effect me

Salary Packaging - Novated Lease

I am less than 15 years from retirement or retired

How does it effect me

I am more than 15 years from retirement

How will Brexit affect your investment value? Brexit will probably have the the same affect on your retirement that the Asian currency crisis of 1997 has on your superannuation value today (that is none to imperceptible).  Unless of course you do something stupid.   

 

A 65 year old retiring today would have experienced one scary even every year in living memory.  Here is the list:

2016 Brexit
2015 China Market Crash
2014 Russia Invading Crimeat
2013 US Gov Shut Down
2012 Grexit
2011 US Fiscal Cliff
2010 Fucashima
2009 Swine Flu
2008 GFC
2007 Credit Crunch
2006 Iran Enriches Uranium
2005 Oil Sikes after Katrina
2004 Boxing day Tsunami
2003 Second Gulf War Starts
2002 SARS epidemic
2001 September 11
2000 Tech Bubble Bursts
1999 Y2K
1998 Bird Flu Crisis
1997 Asian Currency Crisis
1996 Alan Greenspan “ Market Signaling irrational exuberance”
1995 Barings Bank Collapses
1994 Russia send troops into Chechnya
1993 Unemployment in Australia well over 10%
1992 IBM Makes 4.97 Billion loss (largest in US History)
1991 Japanese Asset price bubble collapsed
1990 Interest rates at 17%
1989 The recession we had to have
1988 Bank of Texas fails
1987 Black Monday share market crash
1986 Meeting to deescalate the cold war missile arsenals end in failure.
1985 Capital gains tax introduced
1984 A year-long strike action begins in the British coal industry
1983 The Ash Wednesday bushfires in Victoria and South Australia
1982 A severe recession begins in the United States.
1981 US Savings a Loans Crisis
1980 Gold reaches all time high (inflation adjusted)
1979 USSR Invades Afghanistan
1978 Sydney Hilton bombing
1977 budget predicted deficit of $2.21 billion
1976 A run on a number of building societies in QLD
1975 constitutional crisis
1974 Bank officers refuse to handle commercial cheques until they are successful in their claim for a 25% pay rise
1973 OPEC Oil Crisis – price of oil increases 400%
1972 Watergate
1971 Uncertainty over US dollar not being fixed to gold.
1970 Vietnam war spills into Cambodia and looks like it could spread further outside of Vietnam

This 65 year old has seen the cold war, Oil quadruple during the OPEC oil crisis, interest rates at 17% and the GFC all in the news. 

 

Probably when he was 20, people were saying the economy growth has been driven by the industrial revolution, and that will not happen again.  

 

However in his working lifetime, this person has seen the health, wealth and technology of humanity as well as the profits of businesses increase almost every year.  
During this time, anyone caring to notice, would have seen share markets (and Australian property markets) increase about 2000%.  That does not take into account dividends and rent.  

 

Every Crisis to-date seems to be a temporary decrease in the share market on its long term accumulation of real value. 

 

The biggest way this could affect you is if you used this crisis (or the one next year or the year after that) to let the fear drive a decision to move your super to cash and term deposits, because property and share markets are too "scary" and you don't want to lose anymore money.

You may be saying, "Wait, what if i just sold to crash while the market is going down, then I will get back in".  If you do think this, then find out why I believe timing the market is next to impossible.

I am less than 15 years from retirement or in retirement

The impact will depend on what your how good your financial plan is.

Hopefully you have done the heavy lifting on building assets and paying down debt by now.  If you had to take investment risk (rarely can you save cash to comfortable retirement), then better to do it when you are younger than when you are approaching retirement.

At this stage of life a good plan will have an asset allocation that can no only deal with, but also expects, these crisis's of the day.  The happen almost every year:

2016 Brexit
2015 China Market Crash
2014 Russia Invading Crimea
2013 US Gov Shut Down
2012 Grexit
2011 US Fiscal Cliff
2010 Fucashima
2009 Swine Flu
2008 GFC
2007 Credit Crunch
2006 Iran Enriches Uranium
2005 Oil Sikes after Katrina
2004 Boxing day Tsunami
2003 Second Gulf War Starts
2002 SARS epidemic
2001 September 11
2000 Tech Bubble Bursts
1999 Y2K
1998 Bird Flu Crisis
1997 Asian Currency Crisis
1996 Alan Greenspan “ Market Signaling irrational exuberance”
1995 Barings Bank Collapses
1994 Russia send troops into Chechnya
1993 Unemployment in Australia well over 10%
1992 IBM Makes 4.97 Billion loss (largest in US History)
1991 Japanese Asset price bubble collapsed
1990 Interest rates at 17%
1989 The recession we had to have
1988 Bank of Texas fails
1987 Black Monday share market crash
1986 Meeting to deescalate the cold war missile arsenals end in failure.
1985 Capital gains tax introduced
1984 A year-long strike action begins in the British coal industry
1983 The Ash Wednesday bushfires in Victoria and South Australia
1982 A severe recession begins in the United States.
1981 US Savings a Loans Crisis
1980 Gold reaches all time high (inflation adjusted)
1979 USSR Invades Afghanistan
1978 Sydney Hilton bombing
1977 budget predicted deficit of $2.21 billion
1976 A run on a number of building societies in QLD
1975 constitutional crisis
1974 Bank officers refuse to handle commercial cheques until they are successful in their claim for a 25% pay rise
1973 OPEC Oil Crisis – price of oil increases 400%
1972 Watergate
1971 Uncertainty over US dollar not being fixed to gold.
1970 Vietnam war spills into Cambodia and looks like it could spread further outside of Vietnam

You need stable assets to deal with the fluctuations off the price (not value) of growth assets, and you need growth assets to deal with the real enemy - inflation and running out of money.

The biggest risk is that you let fear of BREXIT or greed of the next bull market change your strategic, long term, asset allocation.

History seems to suggest that, like all crisis's before it, will also pass.